Maldives is the smallest country in Asia and one of the world’s most geographically dispersed island states. It lies southwest of India and Sri Lanka, covering an area of 298 square kilometres with a population of over five hundred thousand people. Maldives strategically lies surrounded by the Indian Ocean, making it one of the prominent trade routes for 80% of China’s oil. It is also one of the best tourist spots for snorkelling and diving, holding the title for having the world’s best marine life. Historically, Maldives was a hub for traders from Arab, Madagascar, Indonesia, and China who visited the island, leaving behind their marks. The economy is driven mainly by tourism, fishing, and boat building. They are part of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), which has led to China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka, and Thailand becoming the main trading partners.
Since the beginning of independence in 1965, Maldives and India have maintained good relations by promoting friendship, cooperation and security. In 1988, India rescued the Maldives from a coup, which helped strengthen the defence ties between the two states. India also provides the Maldives with high tourist accounts each year, making the tourism sector the highest contributor to the Maldives GDP, accounting for over 22%. However, the recent rift between countries in 2023 led to friction and misunderstandings. While the friendship was ripening,
Maldives was sour and took anti-India views, claiming to protect the nation's sovereignty. Thus, an “India Out” campaign. Muizzu was elected to power in 2023 as the president of Maldives with the motto of building stronger ties with China than India, campaigning through the “IndiaOut” pretext.
The dispute was sparked between Maldives and India as three ministers of Maldives tweeted on X disrespectfully of India. It was prompted by Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi's tweet in January 2024 praising Lakshadweep, intended to promote tourism in India’s islands. Abdullah Mahzoom Majid, Minister of Maldives, tweeted, “While I wish success for India’s tourism, targeting the Maldives so explicitly isn’t diplomatic. India faces significant challenges competing in beach tourism, considering our resort infrastructure exceeds their total islands.” another minister, Mariyam Shiuna, called PM Modi a “clown” and “puppet” in the now deleted X posts.
They stated that India could never match or compete with the beauty that the Maldives hold. The Maldives took immediate action by suspending the ministers responsible and saying that their opinions did not represent the nation. Simultaneously, Indian citizens started a social media campaign to boycott the Maldives, which resulted in a decline in Indian tourist visits, which harshly affected the economy. This resulted in India dropping to the sixth position from the first in providing tourists to the country, with China taking the first position. In addition to being a business, tourism is a soft power instrument that improves relations between nations. The cultural and social ties between the two countries could be weakened by a significant decline in Indian tourism, which might make it more difficult to ease diplomatic tensions. Likewise, the Maldives’ strategic orientation towards China may be further shifted, strengthening the current geopolitical shift.
Amidst this, president Muizzu, on January 14, asked India to decommission the 88 Indian soldiers situated in the Maldives and replace them with ordinary technicians to run the aircraft given by India. To counter the loss of access to the Indian Ocean, India has said to open a naval base on the island of Minicoy in Lakshadweep. Due to such circumstances, the bilateral relations between India and Maldives have become tense.
Conversely, the Maldives have resorted to building strategic ties with China. India-Maldives bond took a rocky path since 2013 when President Abdulla Yameen came to power in Maldives and gained back China through the BRI. Through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maldives has borrowed up to 1.4 billion from them, strengthening the bond. Since then, China has made significant investments in Maldives, including the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, which connects the island of Hulhule and Hulhumale with the capital of Maldives, Male. This time, the Maldivian President skipped his traditional visit to India after the presidential elections
and visited China instead, where he signed 20 treaties in Beijing, including security and financial.
To counter China’s growing influence in the region, the foreign minister of India, S Jaishankar, recently visited Maldives and handed over the Water and Sanitation Project, which India fully funds. The project, which costs approximately Rs.923 crore, covers 28 states of Maldives and aims to provide clean drinking water and introduce a sewerage system. Additionally, India is helping build a cricket stadium and training Maldivian civil servants to strengthen the tie further.
China and India have long been rivals, yet trade and diplomacy have tied them together. They both work together as members of multiple regional organisations, such as BRICS and SCO, to promote bilateral relations between them. There have been rising tensions between the two nations, which have become more prominent daily. In recent years, there has been an increased arms race between countries, most of which was driven by China. India hasn’t stood silently to such a show of power from her neighbour and has reacted with a par and improved its defence forces. China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean has affected India, Australia, and the United States due to the critical nature of the trade route.
The recent developments in the relations between China, India, and the Maldives highlight the complicated and dynamic geopolitical environment in the Indian Ocean region. India is taking strategic and economic measures in response to the Maldives’ growing allegiance to China to preserve its influence. The consequences of these changes would affect the Maldives, the global geopolitical tendencies, and the more significant dynamics of regional security. China uses its economic might to gain influence in countries like the Maldives, while India’s soft power promotes regional stability and long-term goodwill. However, China’s financial strength may undermine India’s soft power in an increasingly multipolar world, calling for a balanced strategy in which India enhances economic ties alongside its diplomatic and cultural tasks, guaranteeing sustained influence in significant areas.
Hanan Salim, Student, Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy (IRP and PP), St Joseph’s University, Bengaluru.
