From Arms to Oil: The Transformative Nature of India-Russia Relations

It is rare for two countries to maintain their allyship without much trouble, especially for several decades and even more so in the volatile global order. However, the relationship between India and Russia, which has emerged as an exception, evolved into one of the most enduring and significant partnerships in international relations ever since India’s independence in 1947. This strategic alliance has evolved over decades, shaped by shared ideological beliefs, geopolitical considerations, and economic interests. During the Cold War, India and the Soviet Union had formed a strong bond, ingrained by their commitment to socialism and opposition to colonialism.
The Soviet Union emerged as India's closest ally and primary arms supplier, particularly in the 1960s, as tensions with China and Pakistan intensified. This partnership was formalised in 1971 with the signing of the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, which provided mutual security guarantees and cemented their strategic relationship.

One of the defining moments in their relationship came during India’s nuclear tests in 1998. Despite facing  international sanctions and criticism, Russia stood firmly behind India, proving the depth and trust of their partnership. Similarly, during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, the Soviet Union provided crucial military support to India against Pakistan, showcasing their commitment to each other’s security interests. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 did not significantly alter the relationship dynamics. Russia maintained close ties with India, and both nations referred to their mutual affinity as a “special and privileged strategic partnership”
This partnership has traditionally focused on five major components: politics, defence, civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism cooperation, and space exploration. India-Russia relations have also extended beyond bilateral issues to global platforms. Both countries frequently align on UN Security Council votes and cooperate closely in forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russia has consistently supported India’s bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, demonstrating its commitment to enhancing India’s
global stature.

The Defensive Shift
One of the most significant aspects of India-Russia relations has been their defence partnership. Historically, Russia has been India’s largest arms supplier, accounting for approximately 68% of India’s military hardware imports in 2017. Major Indian imports from Russia have included fighter jets (MiGs, Sukhois), tanks (T-72, T-90), submarines, AK rifles, and advanced missile systems like the S-400.

However, it is to be noted that India is undergoing a significant change in its defence procurement strategy, gradually moving away from its historical reliance on Russian military equipment. After decades of dependence on Soviet and later Russian weapons systems, India aims to reduce its reliance on Russian arms from around 60-70% to about 50% over time. This pivot towards diversification in military imports stems from several factors. India has been ncreasingly concerned about the reliability of Russian supplies following international sanctions
imposed due to the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the country seeks to modernise its military capabilities with cutting-edge technology from other sources. Pressure from Western allies, particularly the United States, to reduce dependence on Russian weapons systems has also played a role in this decision.

Despite this shift in defence strategy, India continues emphasising its commitment to maintaining strong diplomatic ties with Russia. The country views its relationship with Russia as a strategic partnership extending beyond military cooperation. As India explores alternative suppliers like the United States, France, and Israel, it also has opportunities for increased competition among global arms suppliers and to strengthen its relationships with Western nations through defence cooperation. Notable agreements include the Rafale deal with France and various partnerships with the US, such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Conflicts and Shift towards Oil trade
A significant factor that has affected India-Russia relations is the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While India has maintained a neutral stance diplomatically, it has taken advantage of discounted oil prices from Russia, increasing its oil imports substantially. However, this shift towards greater economic engagement has come at the cost of declining defence cooperation. The war has accelerated aforementioned India’s move away from dependence on Russian arms, with France emerging as a significant new defence partner. Despite these changes, public opinion in both countries remains favourable towards the relationship. According to a 2022 poll, Indians most frequently named Russia their most trusted partner, with 43% naming Russia compared to 27% naming the US. Similarly, according to a BBC World Service Poll, Russians view India positively, with 85% expressing a favourable view.

Before the war, Russia was a minor trading partner for India, accounting for only 1.3% of India’s total trade in 2021-22. However, following the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia, India seized the opportunity to purchase discounted Russian oil. In 2022-23, India’s crude oil imports from Russia increased by nearly 13-fold, reaching over $31 billion and making Russia India’s second-largest oil supplier. This shift allowed India to benefit from average discounts of 9-14% per barrel compared to other suppliers, providing relief amid rising global oil prices. The influx of cheap Russian oil helped address India’s macroeconomic challenges and boosted its petroleum product exports. Crude oil remains dominant, accounting for approximately 75% of India’s imports from Russia. Other significant commodities include fertilisers, coal, and machinery. In 2022-23, fertiliser imports increased four-fold, while coal imports tripled. These changes have transformed Russia into India’s fourth-largest import source, with total imports reaching $46.2 billion in 2022-23. By April 2023, Russia had become India’s largest source of crude oil, accounting for almost 33% of India’s oil imports. Despite international pressure, this dramatic shift underscores India’s strategic decision to capitalise on available resources.

Conclusion
The shift in India-Russia trade dynamics has caused broader changes in their bilateral relationship. While historically close allies, particularly in defence cooperation, India and Russia have strengthened their economic ties in response to the Ukraine crisis. This deepening of economic interdependence may complicate India’s stance on the conflict, potentially straining relations with Western partners who seek to isolate Russia economically. The increased trade volume, particularly in oil, has created mutual benefits for both nations. However, it also exposes
India to potential secondary sanctions and reputational risks associated with dealing with a sanctioned entity. This delicate balance highlights the complex nature of India’s foreign policy in the face of great power rivalries. India’s increased reliance on Russian oil and other commodities may have unintended consequences for its strategic positioning regarding China. As Russia improves its relations with China, India’s economic dependence on Russia could potentially compromise its ability to counterbalance Chinese influence. Furthermore, the exposure of Indian defence systems to Russian technology could create vulnerabilities if Russia were to share
sensitive information with China. This scenario shows the need for India to carefully manage its relationships with Russia and China, seeking to maximise economic benefits while ensuring strategic autonomy in its dealings with these powerful neighbours.

Govind Anoop, Research Scholar, Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy (IRP and PP), St Joseph’s University, Bengaluru

Dr. Karamala Areesh Kumar, Head, Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy , St Joseph’s University, Bengaluru